Intelligence Briefings
37 campaigns · 105 signals · 43 actors tracked
News Negativity and Catastrophe Perception Since 2000
Evidence supports the claim that prominent US-oriented news headlines became more negative and emotionally charged from 2000 to 2019, while randomized experiments show a plausible attention-market mechanism that rewards negative wording. The resulting impression of generalized decline can be…
China-Taiwan Coercion Campaign 2026
Taiwan's 2026 Urban Resilience air-defense exercise included planned 30-minute mobile-network degradation tests across 14 local…
Russia-Ukraine War
After the June 2 "talks on hold" state (cf. #1624), the US-mediated diplomatic track reactivated through late June–early July — though…
Critical Minerals Race: Rare Earths, Lithium & the New Resource Geopolitics
Building on the June 15 mining-controls regime (cf. #1627), China moved from rules to targeted retaliation. Per SCMP (via @qvintaaetas June…
Iran-US-Israel War 2026
The June 3 "strikes resumed / draft accord stalled" standoff (cf. #1623) broke toward a deal in mid-June. Verified via WebSearch (CNN, NPR,…
All Campaigns
Emerging Signals
Evidence shows growth and increased visibility of pagan, shamanic, and ancestral practices, but the observed forms are heterogeneous. Contemporary Pagan converts often describe…
Recent benchmark work suggests that autonomous security agents can assist with alert-driven investigation but remain unreliable at proactive forensic discovery and complete…
A new empirical preprint argues that third-party LLM API routers can alter model responses before coding agents execute them, while the March 2026 LiteLLM package compromise…
Security vendor Sysdig documented what it calls the first ransomware attack executed end-to-end by an autonomous LLM agent ("JadePuffer") rather than a human operator — the agent…
A coordinated supply-chain worm series ("Shai-Hulud" → "Shai-Hulud 2.0" → "Mini Shai-Hulud" → "Miasma"/"Hades") attributed to TeamPCP is propagating through npm, PyPI and PHP…
Iran is extending its newly formalized Hormuz toll/transit regime (#1413, #1430) from physical shipping to subsea telecommunications infrastructure. IRGC-affiliated Fars News and…
China's massive R&D scale ($569B, 2.8% GDP) and AI/EV/pharma rise are stress-testing the Acemoglu-Robinson-Bardhan thesis that authoritarian regimes hit a frontier-innovation…
The empirical foundation that made civil resistance the dominant anti-autocratic strategy of the late 20th century — Chenoweth-Stephan's finding that nonviolent maximalist…
UAE's May 1 OPEC exit ends 60 years of membership and removes the third-largest producer from cartel discipline. Atlantic Council reads this as "a long time coming" but driven by…
For most of 2024-2025 the cancer-vaccine race read as a Russia-vs-Moderna/BioNTech story, with China visible mainly through CAR-T and ADC pipelines. AACR 2026 changed that: at…